Marketing

Marketing Mix Modeler

Simulate each channel's incremental impact through diminishing-returns response curves (Hill + adstock), and optimize your media budget allocation. MMM benchmarks 2023-2025.

Scenario

Non-media revenue: brand, earned awareness, distribution, loyalty. Editable.

Current allocation

24,0%
18,0%
8,0%
8,0%
6,0%
6,0%
4,0%
3,0%
10,0%
8,0%
5,0%
Budget distributed: €5,00M / €5,00M

Executive summary

The media plan generates €16,57M of incremental revenue, a blended media ROAS of 3,31×.

Reallocating the same budget, the model projects +€149k of incremental revenue (+0,9%), without spending an extra euro.

Saturated channels to cut: Affiliate, Display / programmatic.

Under-invested channels to scale up: no clearly under-invested channel.

Priority move: shift €300k from Linear TV to Search.

Recommended actions

  • Reallocate €300k from Linear TV to Search: +0,9% of incremental revenue at constant budget.
  • Cap Affiliate (saturated at 58% of ceiling): diminishing returns.
  • Cap Display / programmatic (saturated at 31% of ceiling): diminishing returns.

Incremental revenue

€16,57M

total media contribution

Blended media ROAS

3,31×

incr. revenue / spend

Avg mROI

1,95×

marginal, spend-weighted

Saturated channels

6

> 75% of ceiling · 11 active channels

Optimization lift

+0,9%

at constant budget

Contribution decomposition

Baseline (non-media) + each channel's incremental contribution = total modeled revenue.

Baseline (non-media)54,7%€20,00M
Search14,3%€5,23M
Paid social8,3%€3,02M
Email / CRM6,4%€2,36M
Affiliate5,0%€1,82M
Video / CTV2,8%€1,01M
Display / programmatic2,7%€975k
Influence1,8%€668k
OOH / DOOH1,4%€505k
Radio / audio1,1%€405k
Linear TV1,1%€389k
Print / press0,5%€185k
Total modeled revenue€36,57M

Response curve & saturation

Channel response curve (diminishing returns). Filled dot = current spend, open circle = optimized spend.

CurrentOptimized

Per-channel detail

avg ROAS = contribution / spend · mROI = revenue from the next € · saturation = % of ceiling reached · adstock = carryover from one period to the next.

ChannelSpendContributionavg ROASmROISaturationAdstockStatus
Search€1,20M€5,23M4,36×2,29×45%10%Optimal
Paid social€900k€3,02M3,36×2,05×39%20%Optimal
Affiliate€500k€1,82M3,64×1,38×58%10%Saturated
Display / programmatic€400k€975k2,44×1,69×31%25%Saturated
Video / CTV€400k€1,01M2,52×2,33×23%40%Optimal
Email / CRM€400k€2,36M5,89×2,10×60%15%Optimal
Linear TV€300k€389k1,30×1,67×8%65%Saturated
OOH / DOOH€300k€505k1,68×1,68×23%50%Saturated
Influence€250k€668k2,67×2,00×32%30%Optimal
Radio / audio€200k€405k2,03×1,92×21%40%Saturated
Print / press€150k€185k1,23×1,01×25%35%Saturated

Reallocation optimizer

At constant total budget, the reallocation that maximizes incremental revenue by equalizing mROI across channels (greedy marginal allocation).

ChannelCurrentRecommendedΔ
Search€1,20M€1,77M+€570k
Paid social€900k€1,24M+€340k
Email / CRM€400k€510k+€110k
Display / programmatic€400k€450k+€50k
Affiliate€500k€450k€-50k
Influence€250k€360k+€110k
Video / CTV€400k€220k€-180k
Linear TV€300k€0€-300k
OOH / DOOH€300k€0€-300k
Radio / audio€200k€0€-200k
Print / press€150k€0€-150k
Reallocating at constant budget projects +€149k of incremental revenue (+0,9%), without spending an extra euro.

Alerts

Affiliate is saturating (58% of ceiling): each additional € returns less and less. Redeploy toward under-invested channels.
Display / programmatic is saturating (31% of ceiling): each additional € returns less and less. Redeploy toward under-invested channels.

Data sources

  • •Analytic Partners ROI Genome 2024 — per-channel ROI, diminishing returns and cross-media saturation curves.
  • •Nielsen Global Media Planning & ROI meta-analysis 2023-2024 — mean channel ROI, long-term effects.
  • •Meta & Google econometric MMM studies + Robyn (open-source MMM) — Hill form of response curves and adstock carryover.
  • •WARC Multiplier / Binet & Field, 'The Anatomy of Effectiveness' 2024 — brand / activation balance, S-shaped brand-channel curves.
  • •Ehrenberg-Bass Institute — reach, mental availability and long-term brand response.
  • •IAB Europe AdEx 2024, WFA / Ebiquity cross-media benchmarks 2024 — reference sector media splits.

Model: contribution = Vmax · spend^a / (spend^a + K^a), with K the half-saturation point and Vmax calibrated to a reference ROAS at half-saturation. Educational estimates, to be calibrated on your first-party data.