# Evaluating vendors and build-versus-buy tradeoffs
Three vendors walk into a procurement meeting. All three claim their AI can detect subrogation opportunities, cases where your insurer paid a claim but another party (a negligent driver, a contractor, a product manufacturer) should ultimately foot the bill. All three show a demo with impressive recall numbers. Only one has ever connected to a claims system as messy as yours. This lesson gives you the checklist to tell them apart.
Subrogation is the process where an insurer that has paid a claim seeks reimbursement from the party actually responsible. Missed subrogation is pure margin loss: the claim is paid, the file is closed, and nobody ever goes back to collect. Industry estimates (as of 2024, sources vary) suggest US property and casualty insurers recover well under half of theoretically recoverable subrogation dollars, often cited in the 30 to 50% range depending on line of business.
AI models can flag subrogation candidates by reading adjuster notes, police reports, and claim metadatametadataDonnées sur les données, informations décrivant le contexte, la structure, la provenance et les caractéristiques d'un asset de données (auteur, date, format, source, définition). (claim type, injury codes, liability indicators) to surface patterns a busy adjuster might miss. This makes it a realistic, bounded use case for comparing vendors, not a moonshot.
Imagine you are scoring Vendor A (a specialized insurtech startup), Vendor B (a module bolted onto a large claims-platform incumbent), and Vendor C (a general-purpose AI/analytics consultancy offering a custom build). Score each 1 to 5 on the criteria below.
Ask concretely: does the vendor read structured claims data only, or also unstructured text (adjuster notes, PDFs, call transcripts)? Subrogation signals often hide in free text, so a model limited to structured fields will underperform.
Explainability means the ability to show, in human terms, why a model produced a given output. In insurance this is not optional. Many US states require that adverse decisions affecting policyholders be explainable, and regulators like the NAIC (National Association of Insurance Commissioners) have issued model governance guidance on AI use in insurance. Subrogation flags feed decisions that touch claims handling, so if the flag influences reserve-setting or litigation strategy, your legal and compliance teams will ask "why did the model say this."
Ask for a live reference client in your line of business (auto, workers' comp, property), not just a logo on a slide. Ask how the vendor measured accuracy: against a held-out historical dataset, or only against their own training data (a red flag for overstated performance).
| Criterion (weight) | Vendor A | Vendor B | Vendor C |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data access / integration (30%) | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| Explainability (30%) | 4 | 2 | 3 (if specified) |
| Track record (20%) | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Cost / time to value (20%) | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Worked calculation (weighted score, out of 5):
Vendor B wins on this weighting, but only because integration and cost were weighted at 50% combined. If your legal team insists explainability must be weighted at 40% minimum (common in claims-adjacent use cases), Vendor A overtakes B. The point of the exercise is not the arithmetic, it is forcing your team to state weights explicitly *before* seeing vendor demos, so the sales pitch doesn't set your priorities for you.
"Build" rarely means building a large language modellarge language modelA Large Language Model is an AI system trained on vast text data to predict and generate language, enabling tasks like writing, summarizing, and answering questions.Voir la définition complète → from scratch, almost no insurer does that. It means building a custom pipelinepipelineAll active sales opportunities across the stages of the sales process, together with their combined potential value and probability of closing.Voir la définition complète → (data extraction, feature engineering, a fine-tuned or prompted model, a review workflow) using existing AI infrastructure (cloud provider APIs, open-source models).
Buy makes sense when:
Build makes sense when:
A frequent middle path: buy a vendor's base model, but negotiate access to fine-tune it on your own historical claims data. This gets you speed plus some customization, at added contractual complexity.
Even non-technical evaluators should ask vendors to show a confusion matrix on a held-out test set, not just an overall accuracy number. Example of what to request:
Predicted: Subrogation Predicted: No Subrogation
Actual: Subrogation 420 (TP) 180 (FN)
Actual: No Subrogation 90 (FP) 9,310 (TN)From this: precision = TP/(TP+FP) = 420/510 ≈ 82%. Recall = TP/(TP+FN) = 420/600 = 70%. A vendor who only quotes "95% accuracy" on a dataset where subrogation cases are rare (a classic class-imbalance problem) is likely hiding a weak recall number behind a misleading headline figure. Always ask for precision and recall separately.
Vérification des acquis
1. Why is subrogation detection a good test case for comparing AI vendors, according to the lesson?
2. A vendor's model reads only structured claims fields (claim type, injury codes) but not adjuster notes or call transcripts. What is the most likely consequence for subrogation detection?
3. In the build-versus-buy framework, why is it important to distinguish between a vendor having built connectors for claims systems 'in general' versus having actually connected to a system as messy as yours?
4. Select ALL correct answers about why 'impressive recall numbers' in a vendor demo should be scrutinized carefully.
Sélectionnez toutes les réponses correctes.
5. Select ALL correct answers about factors relevant to the build-versus-buy tradeoff illustrated by Vendors A, B, and C.
Sélectionnez toutes les réponses correctes.
Before signing, confirm the vendor can answer these, in writing:
1. Where is training and inference data stored, and does it cross borders? Relevant for GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation, EU) if you operate in Europe, and for US state data privacy laws.
2. Who owns model outputs and any model improvements derived from your data?
3. What is the process to contest or override a model's subrogation flag?
4. Can the vendor demonstrate bias testing across claimant demographics? Regulators including several US state insurance departments have begun requiring bias audits for claims-related AI.
For a broader grounding in AI risk management frameworks applicable to vendor evaluation, the NIST AI Risk Management Framework is a solid, free reference used well beyond insurance.
🎬 [VIDEO: "How Insurers Are Using AI for Claims and Fraud Detection" - youtube.com - search for recent industry panel discussions covering claims AI deployment, useful for seeing vendor demos discussed critically rather than in a sales context]