Finance

DCF Modeler

Investment-banking-grade unlevered DCF: free cash flow build, WACC via CAPM, terminal value (Gordon & exit multiple), valuation bridge, sensitivities and scenarios. Sourced sector defaults (Damodaran 2024/2025).

Amounts in € millions (M) except the share price (€).

Company & forecast

€M

Revenue & margins

%
%
%
%
%
%
%

WACC (CAPM)

%
%
×
%
%
Levered beta (βL)1,24
Cost of equity (Ke)10,2%
After-tax cost of debt3,8%
Equity weight (E/V) / Debt weight (D/V)91% / 9%
WACC9,60%

βL = βU · (1 + (1−t)·D/E) ; Ke = rf + βL·ERP + premium ; WACC = E/V·Ke + D/V·Kd·(1−t)

Terminal value

×

Bridge to equity

€M
€M
€M
M

Executive summary

In the base case, the DCF values equity at €3,26 bn, i.e. €32,55 per share.

That implies an EV/EBITDA multiple of 11,1× (forward, year 1).

The valuation is driven by the Gordon growth method; terminal value accounts for 73,0% of enterprise value.

The most sensitive driver is WACC: a ±1pt move shifts value by roughly 15,0%.

The bull / bear range spans €24,04 to €44,42 per share.

What this means

  • Fragile value: 73,0% of EV rests on the terminal value — watch g and WACC closely.

Enterprise Value

€3,46 bn

Equity Value

€3,26 bn

Implied share price

€32,55

WACC

9,60%

TV as % of EV

73,0%

Free cash flow build (unlevered)

Year12345
Revenue€1,15 bn€1,29 bn€1,4 bn€1,48 bn€1,51 bn
Growth15,0%11,9%8,8%5,6%2,5%
EBIT margin22,0%22,0%22,0%22,0%22,0%
EBIT€253 M€283 M€308 M€325 M€333 M
NOPAT€190 M€212 M€231 M€244 M€250 M
+ D&A€58 M€64 M€70 M€74 M€76 M
− Capex€46 M€51 M€56 M€59 M€61 M
− ΔNWC€4,5 M€4,1 M€3,4 M€2,4 M€1,1 M
UFCF€197 M€221 M€241 M€256 M€264 M
Discount factor0,9550,8720,7950,7260,662
PV(UFCF)€188 M€193 M€192 M€186 M€175 M
Sum PV(UFCF): €933 M
PV(terminal value): €2,52 bn
Enterprise Value: €3,46 bn

Terminal value — both methods

Gordon growthMethod driving the valuation

UFCFₙ·(1+2,5%)/(WACC−2,5%) @ WACC 9,60%

€3,81 bn

Terminal value (undiscounted)

Exit multiple

22,0× × terminal EBITDA

€9 bn

Terminal value (undiscounted)

Implied exit multiple (Gordon method)9,3×
Implied g (exit multiple method)6,5%
PV(terminal value)€2,52 bn
Terminal EBITDA€409 M

Enterprise Value → Equity Value bridge

Enterprise Value€3,46 bn
− Net debt−€200 M
− Minority interest€0 M
+ Investments / non-op. assets€0 M
Equity Value€3,26 bn
÷ Shares (M)100 M
Implied share price€32,55

Sensitivity table — implied share price

WACC (rows) × terminal growth (columns)

WACC ↓1,5%2,0%2,5%3,0%3,5%
7,60%€38,6€41,9€45,9€50,8€56,8
8,60%€32,9€35,3€38,1€41,4€45,4
9,60%€28,7€30,5€32,6€34,9€37,7
10,60%€25,3€26,8€28,3€30,1€32,2
11,60%€22,7€23,8€25,1€26,5€28,0

Scenarios — football field

Bull/Bear shift growth, margin and WACC around the base case.

Valuation range (share price)

€24,04
€32,55
€44,42

Bear

€24,04

EV €2,6 bn

Base

€32,55

EV €3,46 bn

Bull

€44,42

EV €4,64 bn

Data sources

Software & SaaS

Damodaran, Software (System & Application) US, Jan 2025: βU ≈ 1.15; EBIT margin ≈ 22%; EV/EBITDA ≈ 22×.

Macro assumptions

Risk-free rate ≈ 4,5% (US 10Y Treasury, early 2025); ERP ≈ 4,6% (Damodaran implied ERP, mature market). Adjust for the asset's currency and geography.

Indicative benchmarks for education and scoping. Not investment advice. Validate every assumption against company and market data before any decision.

Methodology / How it's computed

Standard unlevered DCF: discount UFCFs at the WACC, plus a terminal value.

UFCF = EBIT·(1−t) + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC

βL = βU · (1 + (1−t)·D/E) (relevered beta)

Ke = rf + βL·ERP + premium (CAPM)

WACC = E/V·Ke + D/V·Kd·(1−t)

TV (Gordon) = UFCFₙ·(1+g) / (WACC−g)

TV (exit) = EV/EBITDA × terminal EBITDA

Enterprise Value = Σ PV(UFCF) + PV(TV)

Equity Value = EV − net debt − minority interest + investments

Price / share = Equity Value ÷ shares

Macro assumptions

Risk-free rate 4,5% · ERP 4,6% · tax rate 25,0%.