DCF Modeler — Valuation report
Generated on 24 July 2026 — Software & SaaS
Finance
DCF Modeler
Investment-banking-grade unlevered DCF: free cash flow build, WACC via CAPM, terminal value (Gordon & exit multiple), valuation bridge, sensitivities and scenarios. Sourced sector defaults (Damodaran 2024/2025).
Amounts in € millions (M) except the share price (€).
Company & forecast
Revenue & margins
WACC (CAPM)
βL = βU · (1 + (1−t)·D/E) ; Ke = rf + βL·ERP + premium ; WACC = E/V·Ke + D/V·Kd·(1−t)
Terminal value
Bridge to equity
Executive summary
In the base case, the DCF values equity at €3,26 bn, i.e. €32,55 per share.
That implies an EV/EBITDA multiple of 11,1× (forward, year 1).
The valuation is driven by the Gordon growth method; terminal value accounts for 73,0% of enterprise value.
The most sensitive driver is WACC: a ±1pt move shifts value by roughly 15,0%.
The bull / bear range spans €24,04 to €44,42 per share.
What this means
- ▸Fragile value: 73,0% of EV rests on the terminal value — watch g and WACC closely.
Enterprise Value
€3,46 bn
Equity Value
€3,26 bn
Implied share price
€32,55
WACC
9,60%
TV as % of EV
73,0%
Free cash flow build (unlevered)
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €1,15 bn | €1,29 bn | €1,4 bn | €1,48 bn | €1,51 bn |
| Growth | 15,0% | 11,9% | 8,8% | 5,6% | 2,5% |
| EBIT margin | 22,0% | 22,0% | 22,0% | 22,0% | 22,0% |
| EBIT | €253 M | €283 M | €308 M | €325 M | €333 M |
| NOPAT | €190 M | €212 M | €231 M | €244 M | €250 M |
| + D&A | €58 M | €64 M | €70 M | €74 M | €76 M |
| − Capex | €46 M | €51 M | €56 M | €59 M | €61 M |
| − ΔNWC | €4,5 M | €4,1 M | €3,4 M | €2,4 M | €1,1 M |
| UFCF | €197 M | €221 M | €241 M | €256 M | €264 M |
| Discount factor | 0,955 | 0,872 | 0,795 | 0,726 | 0,662 |
| PV(UFCF) | €188 M | €193 M | €192 M | €186 M | €175 M |
Terminal value — both methods
UFCFₙ·(1+2,5%)/(WACC−2,5%) @ WACC 9,60%
€3,81 bn
Terminal value (undiscounted)
22,0× × terminal EBITDA
€9 bn
Terminal value (undiscounted)
Enterprise Value → Equity Value bridge
Sensitivity table — implied share price
WACC (rows) × terminal growth (columns)
| WACC ↓ | 1,5% | 2,0% | 2,5% | 3,0% | 3,5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7,60% | €38,6 | €41,9 | €45,9 | €50,8 | €56,8 |
| 8,60% | €32,9 | €35,3 | €38,1 | €41,4 | €45,4 |
| 9,60% | €28,7 | €30,5 | €32,6 | €34,9 | €37,7 |
| 10,60% | €25,3 | €26,8 | €28,3 | €30,1 | €32,2 |
| 11,60% | €22,7 | €23,8 | €25,1 | €26,5 | €28,0 |
Scenarios — football field
Bull/Bear shift growth, margin and WACC around the base case.
Valuation range (share price)
Bear
€24,04
EV €2,6 bn
Base
€32,55
EV €3,46 bn
Bull
€44,42
EV €4,64 bn
Data sources
Software & SaaS
Damodaran, Software (System & Application) US, Jan 2025: βU ≈ 1.15; EBIT margin ≈ 22%; EV/EBITDA ≈ 22×.
Macro assumptions
Risk-free rate ≈ 4,5% (US 10Y Treasury, early 2025); ERP ≈ 4,6% (Damodaran implied ERP, mature market). Adjust for the asset's currency and geography.
Indicative benchmarks for education and scoping. Not investment advice. Validate every assumption against company and market data before any decision.
Methodology / How it's computed
Standard unlevered DCF: discount UFCFs at the WACC, plus a terminal value.
UFCF = EBIT·(1−t) + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC
βL = βU · (1 + (1−t)·D/E) (relevered beta)
Ke = rf + βL·ERP + premium (CAPM)
WACC = E/V·Ke + D/V·Kd·(1−t)
TV (Gordon) = UFCFₙ·(1+g) / (WACC−g)
TV (exit) = EV/EBITDA × terminal EBITDA
Enterprise Value = Σ PV(UFCF) + PV(TV)
Equity Value = EV − net debt − minority interest + investments
Price / share = Equity Value ÷ shares
Macro assumptions
Risk-free rate 4,5% · ERP 4,6% · tax rate 25,0%.